An Agent-based Simulation of Household Heating Adoption: Integrating Bayesian Belief Updating

Abstract: This paper presents an agent-based model to simulate household decisions transitioning from gas-reliant heating. Households consider three options: installing a gas-free heat pump, adopting district heating, or doing nothing. The model integrates the Theory of Planned Behavior and Bayesian updating of household beliefs. It also accommodates four decision-making styles—rational, satisficing, social, and conservative—that govern how households interpret information and manage risk. Results show how these styles, combined with social influence and evolving beliefs, shape the rate and pattern of adoption, influencing the pace of the gas-free transition. These insights can inform policies and interventions to accelerate sustainable heating technology uptake.